11/22/2023 0 Comments Next fed meeting![]() Still, it may happen at a slow pace on the Fed’s current estimates. Falling Rates?Īs the chance of the Fed raising rates again diminishes, the market’s focus may turn to the Fed’s plans to bring rates down in 2024. The last jobs report for the month of July was encouraging, but there will be another jobs report on September 1 before the Fed meets on September 20. However, if jobs data were to deteriorate, then the Fed may be less inclined to raise rates, all else equal. For 2023 so far, employment has held up better than many expected, giving the Fed the luxury of focusing on inflation risks without much of an obvious trade-off for the economy. ![]() Though the Fed has devoted much of its attention to inflation, employment is part of its mandate, too. However, the views of Fed officials may have evolved in recent months, in part, as recent inflation data has been broadly encouraging. The last update from June suggested interest rates may end 2023 at 5.5% to 5.75%, one notch above where they are currently. Economic projections are updated at every other scheduled Fed meeting. Summary Of Economic ProjectionsĮven if the Fed’s September meeting does not yield any change in rates as most expect then markets will be listening to Jerome Powell’s press conference and analyzing the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections for signals as to what might be coming in November or December. Disagreement between Fed officials on rates could occur. This may mean that there is no consensus decision on interest rates in the final meetings of 2023, with a one rate hike a possibility depending on the view of some officials. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on August 5: “I also expect that additional rate increases will likely be needed to get inflation on a path down to the FOMC's 2 percent target.” Therefore, certain Fed officials still see more rate hikes as necessary.
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